趋势面分析研究.docxVIP

金华市社会总用电量时空变化的趋势面分析 张勇 （浙江师范大学地理与环境科学学院，浙江金华 321004） 摘要:金华市是浙江省经济发展迅速的地区，是浙中城市群的发展中心。随着其社会经济文化的快速发展,人民生活水平迅速提高。城镇化进程的不断加快，必然会导致金华市社会总用电量需求的不断增加，从而加剧了电力需求的紧张局面。因此，合理进行金华市城镇总用电量的时空变化分析，变得越来越重要。首先对趋势面分析方法原理进行阐述，然后在金华市历年统计年鉴的基础上，以2001-2013年金华市社会总用电量为因变量，以城镇化发展水平和GDP总量为自变量，拟合金华市总用电量变化的二次趋势面，从而绘制出趋势面和剩余值等值线图。经过分析可以得出：金华市社会总用电量与金华市城镇化水平、工业发展的经济状况以及总人口等方面密切相关。本文研究对于现阶段浙江省各地区电力工业和国民经济的可持续发展具有科学意义和参考价值。 关键词：金华市；趋势面分析；等值线图；时空变化 Study of Temporal Variations of the Total Electricity Consumption of Jinhua Zhang Yong ( Zhejiang Normal University College of environment and sciences, Zhejiang Jinhua 321004) Abstract:Jinhua is the rapid economic development region of Zhejiang Province, and is the urban agglomeration of Zhejiang Development Center. With the rapid development of itssociety,economy and culture, lives of the people has improved rapidly.With the acceleration of urbanization, and it will lead to the increasing demandof total electricity consumption ofJinhuainevitably, and it also exacerbates tensions of electricity demand. Therefore, a reasonable spatial-temporal variations of the towns total electricity consumption analysis becomes increasingly important. Firstly, analysis of trends and principles set forth, and then on the basis of the calendar year, Jinhua Statistical Yearbook on the 2001-2013 year to the total electricity consumption in Jinhua community as the dependent variable. In the urbanization level and GDP as independent variables, fitting quadratic trend change total electricity consumption, thereby rendering the trend and residual values of contour maps. The analysis results: Jinhua communitys total electricity consumption is closely related to aspects of urbanization, economic conditions and the total population.In this paper, it has scientific significance and reference value for the sustainable development of all regions of Zhejiang stage industry and the national economy. Keywords:Jinhua; trend surface analysis; contour map; temporal and spatial variat