世界展望：变得更加悲观（全球宏观策略报告）.docxVIP

Introduction When we last updated our global forecast in late March, the focus was very much on how far activity would fall in response to the virus and measures being taken to contain its spread.1 Our initial calculations on that score pointed to plunges far beyond anything seen since the Great Depression nearly a century ago but, if anything, have proven to be optimistic. With the collapses in output and employment now having occurred, and with the rate of spread of the virus globally showing signs of leveling off, the focus is shifting to when activity can begin t