中国适应气候变化自然和社会经济影响和风险中国气候变化信息网.pptVIP

Adaptive Planning 适应性规划 Training Course on Climate Change: Physical and Socio-Economic Impact and Risk Assessments Workshop 中国适应气候变化自然与社会经济影响与风险评 估硏讨会培训课程 Presidential Plaza Hotel, Beijing 北京国宾酒店 March3-5.2010 010年3月3-5日 ISET UKCIP and WRI 英国社会经济转型所、英国气候影响项目、世界能源研究所 Climate Change a wicked problem “气候变化,一个难缠的问题” e. Impacts will be both direct and local AND indirect due to changes far away 既有直接、局部的影响,又有间接、长期 的影响 Occurring within and interlinked with dynamic social, economic and political processes 既存在于社会、经济与政治发展进程之中 又与之相互联系 s Adaptive Planning: Not What You Might Expect 意料之外的适应规划 e It is NOT possible to formally plan adaptation strategies for very climate change scenario 并不是每个气候变化情景分析都能 产生规范的适应策略规划 But it is possible to plan to build systems that ENABLE adaptation 但却可以规划设立相应系统,使适 应成为可能。 e In other words, adaptive planning means planning to LEARN 换句话说,适应性规划意味着有计 划的学习 Adaptation: An Iterative Shared Learning Cycle 适应:反复共享学习周期 气键风评信 纳人地万凝居相阿江日标 抗行相示值 忧先选择 Practical Tools for Adaptive Planning(1) 实用适应性规划工具(1) Climate Vulnerability Assessments气候脆弱性评估 Stakeholder Consultations and Engagement 今咨询利益相关者并与之相结合 Shared Learning dialogues共享学习对话 今 Risk Assessments风险评估 Cost Benefit Analysis: qualitative over quantitative ◆成本收益分析:从定量分析到定性分析 9 Merging global, climate science with local climate knowledge and experience ◇将全球气候科学与当地气候知识与经验相融合