2012年美国大学生数学建模B题参考论文.doc

comap # 7017 Page PAGE 28 of NUMPAGES 28 PAGE Camping along the Big Long River Abstract: Geographic profile is an important way to study serial crime. How to generate geographic profile is sophisticated. The paper proposes a method to generate a geographic profile. The method consists of an analog model and a simulation algorithm based on Bayesian formula. The analog model requires the location of serial crimes to meet the "ring hypothesis". we estimate the offenders’ residences by the physics method to find the minimum distance and find the minimum point of the sum function of the distance between the offenders’ residences and the crime locations. The main idea of this method is as what follows. Making the point (quasi-residence) derived by the analog model controls the direction of simulation, searching the locations from outside layers to the inside ones, taking the final search sequence of quasi- residence points, solving the minimum point of the function which is the sum of the distance between the final sequence of quasi- residence point searched and the crime sites. The minimum point is the residence of the serial offender. By BP neural network we predict the next possible crime point. Finally, we test our approach by serial murder cases of Peter Sutcliffe. We derive the result that the distance between the predicting residences point and the actual residence point is only 9.892kilometer, which shows that our approach is feasible. Key words: ring hypothesis; geographic profile; BP neural networks; Peter Sutcliffe simulation Contents Executive summary..…………………………………………………………………3 Introduction ……………………………………………………………………...5 The factors that affect the serial crimes ………………………………………..5 The distribution of the population density ………………………………5 2.2 Topographical features …………………………………………………...6 2.3 The nature of the case itself …………………………………6 2.4 Factors of the offend