外汇风险概述.pptx

Economic/Operating Exposure ;Outline;Lufthansa;Exhibit 1 (Lufthansa) Lufthansa’s Net Cost by Hedging Alternative;Lufthansa;Exhibit 2 (Lufthansa) What Herr Ruhnau Could See: The Rise;Lufthansa;Exhibit 3 (Lufthansa) What Herr Ruhnau Couldn’t See: The Fall;Exhibit 1 (Lufthansa) Lufthansa’s Net Cost by Hedging Alternative;Accusations against Ruhnau;Operating exposure(a.k.a. economic, competitive or strategic exposure);Simple example;E[$ CF] $5 mln $5 mln $5 mln ...;E[$ CF] $5 mln $5 mln $5 mln ...;E[$ CF] ;E[$ CF] $4.9 mln $4.9 mln $4.9 mln ...;E[$ CF] $4.9 mln $4.9 mln $4.9 mln ...;Year 1 2 3 ...;Measuring operating exposure;Example: Volvo;Measuring operating exposure;Price-taking firms;Simple example, revisited;Example #2: U.S. chemical firm exporting to Canada;Price-setting firms with (some) market power;Example: 1985-87 dollar depreciation of 50% against DM;Example: 1985-87 dollar depreciation of 50% against DM;Managing Operating Exposure;Financial Management of Operating Exposure;Examples;Long-term forward contracts Waterford Crystal Costs in Irish punt Revenues in U.S. dollars Sold anticipated $ revenues forward out 2 years Difficult to hedge forward beyond 5 years;Financial Management of Operating Exposure;Example: Swiss subsidiary of U.S. firm;Currency swap;Currency swap;Currency swap;Currency swap;Strategic Management of Operating Exposure;Real exchange rate movements affect the overall competitive environment monitoring/measuring such effects important hedging can be difficult (and questionable) Firms respond strategically to exchange rate-related problems and opportunities marketing initiatives production initiatives ;Goodyear-Mexico 37% Mexico peso devaluation 12/94 Previously sold tires in Mexico Became major exporter to U.S., Europe, South America;Examples;Strategic Management of Operating Exposure;Market selection diversification Move into/out of various foreign markets, depending on competitiveness Ex