基于货币锚效应模型的“两岸四地”人民币区构建实证研究.pdf

2014 年第5 期 哈尔滨商业大学学报(社会科学版) No. 5 ,2014 总第 138 期 JOURNAL OF HARBIN UNIVERSITY OF COMMERCE Serial No. 138 金融理论与实务 基于货币锚效应模型的"两岸四地" 人民币区构建实证研究 张大威，谢宝剑 (暨南大学经济学院，广州 510632) 摘 要:在复杂的国际经济背景下，"两岸四池"各执一币的格局加大了协同抵抗金融风险的难度，也成为 "两岸四池"经贸深入合作和经济进一步融合发展的阻碍。通过以"两岸四地"货币合作的宏观经济基础为前 提，从多边汇率相互影响的角度出发，采用"货币锚"效应模型考察人民币汇率的波动态势及其与"港澳台"三 地货币之间的联动关系，从而揭示港币、i奥门币和新台币对人民币的锚定程度。实证结果显示两岸四地"宏 观经济政策目标一致性日趋增强，港澳台三地货币在对"锚货币"选择中汇率中人民币权重越来越大，因此"两 岸四地"构建人民币区具有一定的可行性。 关键词:最优货币区;汇率指数;货币锚效应;人民币区 中图分类号:F83 1. 5; F832. 3 文献标志码:A 文章编号:1671-7112(2014)05 -0037 -10 Empirical Studies On Building Renminbi Area in the Four - rigion Across the Strait : Base on A Currency Anchor 岛lodel ZHANG Da - wei ,XIE Bao - jian (School of Economics , Jinan University , Guangzhou 510632 ,China) Abstract : Under the background of complex intemational economic situation , the pattem to which the Chinese Mainland , Hong Kong. Macau. Tai- wan each hold one cu町ency becomes more difficult for synergistically resisting financial risks. Meanwhile it hinders the further development econom- ic integration of economy and trade cooperation for the Four - region acro咽 the strait. On the basis of the macroeconomic monetary cooperation in the Four - region Across the Strait. this paper takes account of multilateral exchange rate influence between each other. and through a Monetary Anchor Effect model explores the fluctuation trend of RMB exchange rate and its linkage relationship between Hong Kong dollar • Macau Patacas •New Tai- wan dollar. The empirical results show that the macroeconomic policy goal consistency