俄罗斯可能出现的灰色地区和混合战争行动的时间安排（英文）.pdf

Chronology of Russian Gray Zone and Hybrid Operations 07/02/20 1 Chronology of Possible Russian Gray Area and Hybrid Warfare Operations By Anthony H. Cordesman With the assistance of Grace Hwang Working Draft: Ju ly 2, 2020 Please provide comments to acordesman@ Photo: ALEXANDER ZEMLIANICHENKO/AFP via Getty Images Chronology of Russian Gray Zone and Hybrid Operations 07/02/20 3 Wars are no longer declared, and having begun, proceed according to an unfamiliar template…the role of non-military means of achieving political and strategic goals has grown, and in many cases, they have exceeded the power of force of weapons in their effectiveness. The focus of applied methods of conflict has altered in the direction of the broad use of political, economic, informational, humanitarian, and other non- military measures – applied in coordination with the protest potential of the population. All this is supplemented by military means of a concealed character, including carrying out actions of informational conflict and the actions of special operations forces. However, it is important to note that Gerasimov’s article has been incorrectly labeled as the “Gerasimov doctrine,” and the Russian understanding of “non-linear warfare” has been recognized by many scholars and strategists to be a mirror image of Russia’s perception of U.S. activities in the irregular warfare domain. This conceptualization also reflects the fact that U.S. strategic competition with other states like China, Iran, and North Korea involves political and economic competition, and that the word “warfare” goes beyond th