上海市人口增长的环境变化及其相关性的研究.pptVIP

Evaluation only. Created with Aspose.Slides for .NET 4.0 Client Profile 17.1. Copyright 2004-2017Aspose Pty Ltd. Evaluation only. Created with Aspose.Slides for .NET 4.0 Client Profile 17.1. Copyright 2004-2017Aspose Pty Ltd. 上海市人口增长、环境变化及其 相关性研究 刘旖芸 (复旦大学社会发展与公共政策学院) Evaluation only. ith Aspose slides for NET 4o client P Evaluation only. Created with Aspose Slides for NET 4.0 Client Profile 171 Copyright 2004 -2017 Aspose Pty Ltd  Evaluation only. Created with Aspose.Slides for .NET 4.0 Client Profile 17.1. Copyright 2004-2017Aspose Pty Ltd. Evaluation only. Created with Aspose.Slides for .NET 4.0 Client Profile 17.1. Copyright 2004-2017Aspose Pty Ltd. 引 相关理论 a)托马斯马尔萨斯( Thomas malthus人口理论 提出两个级数增长的理论 人口不受限制将会按照几何级数增长, 而食物生产则按照算术级数增长 因此食物生产永远赶不上人口的增长 Evaluation only. ith Aspose slides for NET 4o client P Evaluation only. Created with Aspose Slides for NET 4.0 Client Profile 171 Copyright 2004 -2017 Aspose Pty Ltd  Evaluation only. Created with Aspose.Slides for .NET 4.0 Client Profile 17.1. Copyright 2004-2017Aspose Pty Ltd. Evaluation only. Created with Aspose.Slides for .NET 4.0 Client Profile 17.1. Copyright 2004-2017Aspose Pty Ltd. b)当代马尔萨斯主义: 美国威廉·福格特(W.Vogt)的《生存之路》(1956) 赫茨勒(J.0. Hertzler)的《世界人口危机》(1956)、 艾利奇(P.R. Ehrlich)的《人口爆炸》(1968) 英国学者泰勒(G. Taylor)的《世界末日》(1970) 丹尼斯梅多斯(D.H. Meadows)的《增长的极限》(1972)等 他们的共识 世界人口如果按照原有的速度增长下去,势必造成粮食危机、 自然资源枯竭,甚至面临“世界末日”。因此认为人口增长 是 目前资源危机和环境恶化的根本原因之 Evaluation only. ith Aspose slides for NET 4o client P Evaluation only. Created with Aspose Slides for NET 4.0 Client Profile 171 Copyright 2004 -2017 Aspose Pty Ltd  Evaluation only. Created with Aspose.Slides for .NET 4.0 Client Profile 17.1. Copyright 2004-2017Aspose Pty Ltd. Evaluation only. Created with Aspose.Slides for .NET 4.0 Client Profile 17.1. Copyright 2004-2017Aspose Pty Ltd. )资源富饶论的乐观派 凯恩在《下个200年:美国和世界的方案》中认为 人口将按照“S”型逻辑斯蒂克曲线增长,世界人口有望在22世 纪能够稳定下来。他认为技术进步可以推迟资源限制时间的到来, 直到它们不再成为经济增长的限制为止。 西蒙在《人口增长经济学》中提出 人口增长和环境污染之间的