供应链生产及存货政策之长鞭效应分析.pdf

供应链生产及存货政策之长鞭效应分析供应链生产及存货政策之长鞭效应分析 供应链生产及存货政策之长鞭效应分析供应链生产及存货政策之长鞭效应分析 刊登日期：2002/04/01 作者 ／台北科技大学商业自动化与管理研究所 陈铭昆 南亚科技股份有限公司工程师 郑颖聪 摘要摘要 摘要摘要 由于企业环境急速变动，产学界提出供应链管理之观念与作法以因应之。供应链常受到 生产策略及存货政策之影响，以致常造成链上信息扭曲，即称为长鞭效应现象。本文旨针对 三种生产策略如 MTS(Make-to-stock)、BTO(Build-to-order)、及 CTO(Configuration-to-order)和五种存货政策如 (s,S), (s,Q), (s,R), (s,Q,R) 及 VMI(Vendor Managed Inventory)，探讨供应链管理中库存量曲线之波动情形。根据上述波 动现象从波动幅度、波动时间及阶层传递放大率来观察长鞭效应现象。长鞭效应衡量指针包 括：波动最高点、波动最低点、波动回稳时间、上游需求放大率、总波动回稳时间及总放大 率等。本研究采用桌上型个人计算机产业为对象，需求型态为下降型。文中首先以系统动态 学建置三种生产策略之模型，五种存货政策则以各政策意义以模型参数公式表示之。系统动 态模型效度的检定计有四项： 稳态测试、阶梯测试、季节波动测试、及实际资料测试。之 后将仿真实验结果以灰色关联求出最佳政策组合。此最佳政策组合可作为管理者在控制供应 链长鞭效应政策之参考依据。 关键词关键词 关键词关键词 供应链管理、长鞭效应、系统动态学、灰色关联分析 The Study of Bullwhip Effect of Supply Chain Production and Inventory Strategy Under The Study of Bullwhip Effect of Supply Chain Production and Inventory Strategy Under The Study of Bullwhip Effect of Supply Chain Production and Inventory Strategy Under The Study of Bullwhip Effect of Supply Chain Production and Inventory Strategy Under Declined Trend Demand Declined Trend Demand Declined Trend DemandDeclined Trend Demand AbstractAbstract AbstractAbstract Since the rapid change in industry environment, the academic and industry proposed the concept and procedure to solve the problems of supply chain management (SCM). SCM is often affected by the production and inventory strategy and it has the information distortion. This is called bullwhip effect. The purpose of this paper focuses on three production strategies, make-to-stock(MTS), Build-to-order(BTO), Configuration-to-order (CTO), and five inventory strategies, (s,S), (s,O), (s, R), (s,Q,R), and Vendor Management Inventory (VMI) and studies the SCM inventory fluctuation influenced by the above strategies. Based on the above scenarios, the bullwhip effect can be observed by inventory fluctuation, time and level transfer ratio. The b