高盛:中国汽车行业研究.pdf

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China Autos: New coverage Assemblers and parts Industry dynamics means divergent performance " " Tougher conditions. OEMs have adjusted production to prepare for 10%-15% demand growth; inventories are building November 15, 2004 along segment lines. Tougher operating conditions should favor Coverage view: Cautious low-cost auto makers like Denway or exporters like Norstar. But we believe domestic auto parts players should see ASP and cost pressures intensify in 2005. We initiate on Fuyao with an IL rating. Why read this report Slowing demand was no accident; environment favors low cost/exporters Auto loan restrictions coupled with new model competition should drive 8%-10% falls in • Notes from recent auto tour sedan ASPs and 10%-15% yoy sales volumes growth from 2004-2007. Yet, after interviews • Fuyao Glass initiation, auto with major Chinese OEMs, we argue many have started adjusting production to match coverage updates demand. • Sedan demand linked to auto part industry trends Auto makers: Branding, scale and cost more vital than ever before We argue new capacity and inventories are building primarily in the mid-tier segment. Low- cost makers like Denway are positioned to balance market share and necessary ROIC falls.

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