高盛 美国医疗服务 生物技术研究报告 2010-3.pdf

March 22, 2010 United States: Healthcare: Biotechnology March 22, 2010 United States: Healthcare: Biotechnology Product news likely to be key driver in 2Q2010 Expect volatility on product news In this report, we have summarized selected events and expected outcomes in 2Q2010 for our universe of biotech companies. We continue to expect regulatory action and Phase 3 data on Amgen’s Prolia to be mostly positive. We maintain our Buy rating based on a reacceleration of EPS growth and an increasingly visible pipeline. Genzyme should have another eventful quarter with the potential FDA approval of Lumizyme and Medicare decision on bundling of dialysis payments. We maintain our Sell rating as we believe disruptions in supply and increased competition create risks for 2010. Alexion, Celgene, Gilead, Human Genome Sciences, Onyx, Seattle Genetics, and Vertex may be volatile around the release of clinical data. Alexion (ALXN, CL Buy): ● Approval of Soliris in Japan Amgen (AMGN, Buy): ● Approval of Prolia for osteoporosis in Europe ● Phase 3 data on Prolia to prevent cancer metastasis Celgene (CELG, Sell): ● Phase 3 data on Revlimid as FLMT in multiple myeloma Genzyme (GENZ, Sell): ● Medicare decision on bundling of dialysis payments ● FDA approval of Lumizyme Gilead (GILD, Neutral): ● Phase 3 results on TMC-278 for HIV Human Genome Sciences (HGSI, Neutral): ● Phase 3 data for Benlysta in lupus Onyx Pharmaceuticals (ONXX, Buy): ● Phase 3 data on Nexavar in lung cancer OSI Pharmaceuticals (OSIP, Neutral): ● FDA action on Tarceva for first-line maintenance therapy of lung cancer Seattle Genetics (SGEN, Neutral): ● Phase 2b data on SGN-33 in AML Vertex (VRTX, Neutral): ● Phase 3 data for telaprevir in hepatitis C May-Kin Ho, Ph.D. The Goldman Sachs Gr