中国的经济增长前景：正在列入高收入国家.docxVIP

China’s Growth Outlook: Is High-Income Status in Reach? Matthew Higgins OVER VIE W Decades of rapid economic growth have propelled China out of poverty and into middle-income status. Now the country faces a new chal- lenge: escaping the so-called “middle-income trap.” To gauge the likelihood of success, the author develops a set of growth projections, drawing on the experience of other countries that have reached Chinas current income level. The results are stark: Given an aging population and diminishing returns to capital, China can only achieve high-income status in the coming decades by