邗江农民集中居住区综合项目建设期风险研究应用.doc

邗江农民集中居住区项目建设期风险研究 【摘要】论文首先介绍了风险管理研究基础理论，和风险识别、风险估量、风险评价和风险处理主流方法。在总结风险管理理论和方法基础上，针对农民集中居住区项目风险管理影响原因复杂、繁多等特点，结合实际需要，依据农民集中居住区项目区分于其它项目标特殊性，根据风险识别、估量、评价和应对方法思绪，采取教授打分、层次分析法（AHP）和模糊综合评价等模型和方法对邗江区公道镇农民集中居住区项目建设期风险进行了研究。在风险评价基础上，对邗江区公道镇农民集中居住区项目建设期风险提出了具体应对方法。 【关键词】农民集中居住区 建设期风险 模糊综合评价 风险管理 Risk of the project construction of farmers-concentrated residential areas in Hanjiang Abstract : At the beginning of the paper, some fundamental theory and research results such as the commonly used means of risk identification estimation, evaluation and solution have been introduced . Based on the analysis of both the theory and actual means of risk management and its variety and complexity of the influencing factors in the risk management project of farmers-concentrated residential areas, together with actual needs, we follow the method of risk identification, risk estimation, risk evaluation and risk response .The research is worked on expert investigation in order to make sure the risky factors in this project. And AHP and general comprehensive evaluation are used to draw out the overall value-at-risk in this project through a qualitative and quantitative research. At last, based on the evaluation of risk as well as empirical study on the actual project, it can come up with concrete responsive measures against the risk in constructing period of farmers-concentrated residential areas in Gongdao Town Hanjiang District. Keywords : Farmers-concentrated residential areas ; Risk in construction ; Fuzzy synthetic evaluation ; Risk management 引言 农民集中居住是发端于沿海发达地域、农民自发集约用地实践，以后演变成一场在现有土地制度框架之下、以已经有城镇用地和城市化特征为背景、政府主导、包含土地、资金、人口迁移、城镇社会变迁城市化运动。中国农民集中居住关键采取宅基地置换方法，将分散在自然村农民集中到农民公寓或新型小区居住，同时处理其户籍、社保、土地资产等方面问题，试图从居住方法改变入手促进农民市民化。工业化土地资源需求，农村土地现实状况，城市化深入推进，农民市民化、现代化，统筹城镇发展，新农村建设等等共同为集中居住设置了背景，并为其提供了合理性。在这种合理性之下，集中居住在未来城市化实践中将是大势所趋。所以，农民集中居住区项目也越来越多。 农民集中居住区项目关乎民生，包含面很广泛，针对农民集中居住区项目标研究结果越来越多，不过相关农民集中居住区项目建设期风险研究结果相对较少，本文结合省级资金关键扶持项目邗江区公道镇农民集中居住区开展建设期风险研究含有一定理论和实践意义。 1 风险管理理论中基础概念界定 （1）工程项目风险