上海海事 供应链 ppt第三章.pptVIP

Chapter 3 Inventory Management and Risk Pooling;;3.1 Introduction;; Why hold inventory at all? Some of the reasons include: To protect the firm from unexpected changes in customer demand. Customer demand has always been hard to predict, and uncertainty in customer demand has increased in the last few years owing to: ;;;;; These examples raise two important issues in inventory management: Demand forecasting Order quantity calculation;3.2 A Single Warehouse Inventory Example;3.2.1 The Economic Lot Size Model;;;;;3.2.2 The Effect of Demand Uncertainty;Case:swimsuit production;Case:swimsuit production;Case:swimsuit production;;To summarize: The optimal order quantity is not necessarily equal to forecast, or, average, demand As the order quantity increases, average profit typically increases until the production quantity reaches a certain value, after which the average profit atarts decreasing ;As we increase the production quantity, the risk-that is, the probability of large losses-always increases. At the same time, the probability of large gains also increases. This is the risk/reward trade-off;The effect of Initial Inventory;3.2.3 Multiple Order Opportunities; At least 3 reasons explain why the distributor holds inventory: To satisfy demand occurring during lead time To protect against uncertainty in demand To balance annual inventory holding costs and annual fixed order costs. ;3.2.4 No Fixed Order Costs;If a customer order arrives when there is no inventory on hand to fill the order, the order is lost. The distributor specifies a required service level. The service level is the probability of not stocking out during lead time.;;;;;3.2.4 No Fixed Order Costs;;3.3 Risk Pooling;Intuitively this is explained as follows:;; ;;3.4 Centralized versus  Decentralized Systems;3.5 Managing Inventory  in the Supply Chain;;3.6 Practical Issues;Review