美赛： 特等奖1922154---数学建模.pdfVIP

Team Control Number For office use only For office use only T1 _______________ 1922154 F1 _______________ T2 _______________ F2 _______________ T3 _______________ F3 _______________ T4 _______________ Problem Chosen F4 _______________ C 2019 MCM/ICM Summary Sheet The Current Status, Future and Strategy of Opioid Summary The United States is experiencing a crisis regarding the abuse of opioids which poses a great threat to the development prospects of the United States. Based on the idea of cellular automata, we not only describe the spread and characteristics of reported synthetic opioid and heroin cases in Ohio, Kentucky, West Virginia, Virginia, and Pennsylvania, but also develop a possible strategy countering the opioid crisis. We define a county and the nearest k counties around it as an “environment”. Based on the idea of KNN, we determine the m “environments” that are most similar to the “environment” of the county, and then use the cellular automata to predict the number of cases in the county next year with the growth rate of m “environments”. At the same time, we define the opioid incidents concentration index (CI) to characterize the degree of aggregation of cases by reference to the HHI index. Finally, we obtain the distribution of synthetic opioids and heroin incidents in five states. Cases are still concentrated in tran