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The-East-Asian-Dollar-Standard-and-China’s-Exchange-Rate课件知识学习.ppt

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2021/3/13 * Figure 10: US and cumulative East Asian Current Accounts (Billions of US Dollars) Data source: IMF: IFS. 2021/3/13 * “Revived Bretton Woods” EA Exchange Rates deliberately undervalued to generate a trade surplus. Exports are desired to promote “development”, particularly in manufacturing. Asian governments are willing to invest in very low yield US Treasuries, and to accept American FDI with high profit repatriation. US gets finance for its fiscal deficits The ongoing US current-account deficit need not be corrected in the near future The Dollar Standard and East Asia’s Trade Surplus: The DFG Interpretation* * Dooley, Folkerts-Landau, and Garber (2003)-(2004). 2021/3/13 * The Dollar Standard and East Asia’s Trade Surplus: The MCK Interpretation, I The current regime: With the dollar as international money, the efficiency of world trade and payments increases. With a stable U.S. price level, peripheral countries will peg to the dollar to anchor their own price levels—particularly East Asian countries highly integrated in trade. They converge to relative purchasing power parity (PPP) if nominal exchange rates remain fixed: no exchange rate “undervaluation” 2021/3/13 * The Dollar Standard and East Asia’s Trade Surplus: The MCK Interpretation, II Proposed East Asian exchange rate changes: discrete appreciation or floating No predictable effect on net trade balances Any appreciation will slow economic growth and lead to deflation Loss of credibility to maintain the exchange rate at any level Possibility of an indefinite upward spiral in the dollar value of East Asian currencies 2021/3/13 * The Dollar Standard and the United States: MCK Interpretation The unlimited US credit line with the rest of the world softens borrowing constraints on US households, and the federal government. Federal fiscal deficits are financed by selling dollar bonds to foreigners at low interest rates. Large current account deficits are sustainable “indefinitely” because of t