某银行的改革(英文版).pptx

China’s Last Step Across the River: Completing the banking reform;The last-steps;Banking reform has made progresses;Financial deepening, M2/GDP (%) ;Declining growth rates of household deposits;But bank fragility grew;Slow declining productivity growth (%, p.a.);SOEs’ profitability falling (%);Banking fragility;…were confirmed by firm data (%);New measures adopted to cure the problems;But the environment is changing rapidly;Assumptions about external situation;Global growth slowing but still above trend;Japan’s steady recovery a boost for Asia;What does this mean for China;Domestic factors more critical;Initial turnaround led by export growth;Now, consumer spending is rising...;(because of rising consumer confidence);…so is corporate investment;China is to maintain strong growth;Implications of WTO accession;Entry of foreign banks after WTO accession;Foreign bank penetration, end of 1999;Loan-deposit gaps of foreign banks;Stylized facts: experiences of other countries;European transitional economies;What are likely to happen?;Short-term business strategies;Need for coordinated reforms;Interest rate and exchange rate reforms;Real exchange rate back to pre-crisis level;Exchange rate should remain stable;Fiscal challenge: falling revenue share... ;…and costly last-step reforms;Reforms: revenues ? and bad debts?;Although the statements of facts in this report have been obtained from and are based upon sources the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates included in this report constitute the Firm’s judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of a security. Salomon Smith Barney is a registered broker-dealer. It is a member of Citigroup Inc and is affiliated with Citibank, N.A. and its subsidia