产业内贸易对经济周期协动性的影响—基于中国与东亚的实证研究.docxVIP

产业内贸易对经济周期协动性的影响 ——基于中国与东亚的实证研究 摘 要 东亚地区倡导建立命运共同体的愿景从未停歇，从最早1938年的日本提出东亚共荣圈的假想，到东亚地区论坛、东亚峰会、金砖国家、G20峰会、“一带一路”的筹备建设，东亚地区为区域经济一体化的深化一直在付诸更多的行动。通过一系列的努力，中国与东亚地区相互依存的国际关系日益加强，这种协同的关系不断渗透到各国的（地区）的经济发展中，各成员国之间的经济波动明显呈现高度的相关性。根据Frankel与Rose对经济周期的探究，其波动的传导因素包括了产业结构差异、贸易、投资在内的众多因素，国际贸易作为重要的影响因素，其中的产业内贸易已逐渐替代产业间贸易成为东亚地区主导的贸易方式。因此，本文选取经济周期协动性作为主要的研究对象，通过观察产业内贸易水平的变化，来实证研究中国对东亚各国（地区）经济周期同步性的作用。 本文从分析静态指标GL指数、不同要素产品GL指数以及水平型、垂直型分类指标的出发。其次，在通过绘制图示法、H-P滤波模型、计算Pearson系数、Granger因果关系检验验证东亚区域经济周期的趋同性地基础上，运用C-M经济周期同步化指数来测度各成员国之间的同步化程度。最后的实证部分，构建了以经济周期同步化指数为因变量，GL指数为主要自变量的面板模型。进行一系列回归分析，实证研究总体产业内贸易水平、不同要素产品、不同类型产业内贸易对经济周期同步性的传导路径。并根据以上的论述提出相关的政策建议。 关键词：产业内贸易；水平型；经济周期协动性；回归分析 The Influence of Intra-Industry Trade on Business Cycle—Synchronization in East Asia Abstract The wish of establishing a community of corporate future in east Asia has never stopped. From the vision of the east Asia co-prosperity sphere put forward by Japan in 1938, to the preparation and construction of the east Asia regional forum, east Asia summit, Brics, G20 and One Belt And One Road, east Asia has been taking more actions to deepen regional economic integration. Through a series of efforts, the interdependent international relevance among China and east Asia have been strengthened day by day. This cooperative relationship has continuously penetrated into the economic improvement of every country (region). According to Frankel and Rose on the study of the business cycle synchronization, factors which contribute to it including the international trade, the investment intensity, the industrial composition, etc. The influence of international trade is an significant element, intra-industry trade has gradually substituted industry become a dominant way of trade in east Asia. Therefore, this article chooses the synchronization of business cycle as the main research target, and empirically researches its effect on the synchronization of business cycle by observing the changes in the level of intra-industry trade. Thi