台湾大学廖咸兴CorporateFinancingandtheLessonsofMarketEfficiencyTraining.pptxVIP

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台湾大学廖咸兴CorporateFinancingandtheLessonsofMarketEfficiencyTraining.pptx

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Chapter 12Fundamentals of Corporate FinanceThird EditionCorporate Financing and the Lessons of Market EfficiencyBrealey Myers Marcusslides by Matthew WillIrwin/McGraw-HillTopics CoveredInvestment Decision vs. Financing DecisionMarket EfficiencyWeak form efficiencySemi-strong form efficiencyStrong form efficiencyLessons of Market EfficiencyInvestment vs. FinancingInvestment decision are made based on the risk of the project, with total disregard for how the project will be financed (flotation costs being the exception).Financing decisions are made based on the conditions in the capital markets, with little consideration for the investment being made (project specific funding being the exception. IRBs are a good example). Market EfficiencyMarket Efficiency Theory Capital markets reflect all relevant information. You cannot consistently earn excess profits. Market EfficiencyEfficient Capital Markets - Financial markets in which security prices rapidly reflect all relevant information about asset values.Random Walk - Security prices change randomly, with no predictable trends or patterns.Random Walk TheoryThe movement of stock prices from day to day DO NOT reflect any pattern. Statistically speaking, the movement of stock prices is random (skewed positive over the long term).Random Walk TheoryCoin Toss GameHeads$106.09Heads$103.00$100.43Tails$100.00Heads$100.43$97.50Tails$95.06TailsRandom Walk TheoryRandom Walk TheoryMarket EfficiencyTechnical Analysts - Investors who attempt to identify over- or undervalued stocks by searching for patterns in past prices.Fundamental Analysts - Analysts who attempt to fund under- or overvalued securities by analyzing fundamental information, such as earnings, asset values, and business prospects.Efficient Market Theory$907050EI’s Stock PriceCycles disappear once identifiedLast MonthThis MonthNext MonthMarket EfficiencyWeak Form Efficiency - Market prices rapidly reflect all information contained in the history of past prices.Semi-