Global Commodity Markets – Price Volatility and Financialisation全球大宗商品市场价格波动和金融化–.pdfVIP

Global Commodity Markets – Price Volatility and Financialisation Alexandra Dwyer, George Gardner and Thomas Williams* A significant increase in the level and volatility of many commodity prices over the past decade has led to a debate about what has driven these developments. A particular focus has been on the extent to which they have been driven by increased financial investment in commodity derivatives markets. This article examines the factors behind the increase in the level and volatility of commodity prices. The available evidence suggests that while financial investors can affect the short-run price dynamics for some commodities, the level and volatility of commodity prices appear to be primarily determined by fundamental factors. Introduction Graph 1 Commodity Prices* The past decade has witnessed a large increase in 1 January 1995 = 100, daily the prices of many commodities, despite significant Index Index falls during the global financial crisis (Graph 1). These increases have raised a number of concerns 300 300 for policymakers, including the potential for rising commodity prices to feed into broader domestic 200 200 inflation pressures, with some developing nations particularly concerned about rising food prices. The G-20 has committed to ‘work to address excessive 100 100