基于故障树的供应链风险评估方法研究.docxVIP

基于故障树的供应链风险评估方法研究 - - PAGE #- 经济社会的快速发展促使供应链外部环境和内部运作的动态变化进一步加剧， 使其所面临的不确定性因素增多，进而使得由供应链风险所引起的供应链延迟和中 断频繁发生。加强对供应链风险的识别与评估研究，是关系到能否更好地防范和控 制供应链风险、保证供应链正常运作的关键，因此此项研究具有很强的理论意义和 实践价值。 论文在研究国内外大量相关文献的基础之上，吸收国内外丰富的研究成果，综 合运用供应链管理、风险管理等多个学科的理论和报童模型、网络层次分析法、故 障树分析等多种量化技术，采用理论分析与算例分析相结合的方法，对供应链风险 的识别与评估进行了系统的研究。主要研究内容如下： 首先，采用供应链运作参考模型对供应链所面临的风险进行识别，得到了比较 全面的供应链风险系统识别结果。在此基础之上，引入了对复杂系统分析行之有效 的故障树风险分析方法，并建立了基于故障树的供应链风险评估模型。同时，通过 应用报童模型对供应链风险的成本性及收益性进行权衡，得到更为合理的底事件发 生概率。其次，在故障树中引入权重，通过网络层次分析法确定底事件之间的相对 权重，更好的体现了供应链管理者对不同风险的敏感度及需求的差异，真实地反映 了实际情况。最后，通过对故障树定量分析的改进得到更加合理的供应链系统风险 概率及各个风险的重要度，并通过算例模拟对整个风险评估过程进行数据分析，对 模型结果参数的实际意义作出解释，为供应链管理者进行风险分析提供了依据。 关键词：供应链风险；风险评估；故障树分析；报童模型；网络层次分析 Abstract With the rapid development of economic and social，the dynamic change of external environment and internal operation of supply chain become more intense. Along with the increase of uncertainty factors in supply chain, the delay and breakdown of supply chain caused by the supply chain risk occurred frequently. Therefore, strengthen the research of supply chain risk identification and evaluation is related to can be better prevent and control the supply chain risk, and it is the key to guarantee the normal operation of supply chain. The study has great theoretical significance and practical value. On the basis of a large number of domestic and international researches, the paper absorbs rich research achievements of home and abroad. It is the integrated use of supply chain management, risk management and other disciplines theory and newsboy model, analytic network process, fault tree analysis and other quantitative techniques, using theory analysis and example analysis, in order to conduct a study on supply chain risk identification and evaluation. The main contents are as follows: First of all, the paper uses of supply chain operations reference model to identifying supply chain risks and gets a more comprehensive supply chain risks identified results. On this basis, the paper introduces the