巴萨penn效应论文.docxVIP

安徽财经大学本科生毕业论文 安徽财经大学本科生毕业论文 人民币贬值还是升值一一基于购买力平价的 巴拉萨一萨缪尔森效应的解释 商学院经济与金融专业 08级3班 陈淑娴 20083029148指导老师：曹强讲师 内容摘要：购买力平价是关于汇率决定的最具影响力的一种理论，也是汇率决定 最基础的一种理论。依据购买力平价的方法对人民币低估的程度也曾是最为严重 的在目前国际舆论的压力下，人民币汇率问题也愈加显得沉重。本文分别通过对 巴拉萨―萨缪尔森效应或 Penn效应的购买力平价理论分析，来解释人民币是否贬 值的问题。本文认为，基于巴拉萨―萨缪尔森效应或 Penn效应的购买力平价理论 即扩展型的购买力方法，相对于其他的基本均衡汇率等方法来说，是较为适宜衡 量人民币均衡汇率水平的，就目前国际状况的分析，在 2012年人民币汇率还将以 平稳渐进的方式有所上升。总而言之，当前的人民币汇率并不存在低估的问题。 关键词：购买力平价；巴拉萨―萨缪尔森效应； Penn效应；人民币实际汇率 RMB Devaluation or Appreciation --Based on Purchasing Power Parity ofthe Balassa-Samuelson Effect Explained Abstract: The purchasing power parity is a theory of exchange rate determination of the most influential, but also the exchange rate to determine the most basic theory. Also based on the extent of the method of purchasing power parity of the yuan is undervalued is the most serious. Under the pressure of international opinion, the RMB exchange rate issue has become even more heavyn this paper, through analysis, based on the Balassa -Samuelson effect or the Penn effect PPP theory to explain the problem of whether devaluation of the renminbi. This paper argues that the purchasing power parity theory based on the Balassa - Samuelson effect or the Penn effect, expanding the type of purchasing power relative to other fundamental equilibrium exchange rate is more appropriate to measure the equilibrium exchange rate level. The present analysis of the international situation, the RMB exchange rate in 2012 will be a steady and gradual manner has increased. In summary, the current RMB exchange rate does not underestimate the problem. Key words: Purchasing Power Parity; Balassa-Samuelsoneffect; Penn effect; Renminbi real exchange rate. 目录 TOC \o 1-5 \h \z \o Current Document 一、引 言 1 \o Current Document 二、2012年人民币汇率走势分析 3 \o Current Document 三、均衡汇率衡量方法 7 \o Current Document 四、 基于巴萨效应与Penn效应的拓展型PPP方法 8 \o Current Document （一） 巴拉萨-萨缪尔森效应 9 \o Current Document （二）Penn 效应 11 （三）拓展型PPP方法 12 \o Current Document 五总结 12 \o