IMF高级宏观经济学研修班CT1405MMFL08ManagingI.pptxVIP

L-8 Part II. Managing Capital Flows in China;Outline;China’s Experience: Forex inflows were sizable, but mainly from the current account surplus.;…the capital and financial account was also in surplus and volatile.;FDI flows were large;FDI and other Capital Flows were large in a global context too;Gross Capital Flows were also large;How were capital flows managed in the past?;Nominal and Real Effective Exchange Rates appreciated since 2005 reform;Sterilization: Official Reserves increased considerably;With considerable variation in the extent of forex intervention;The reserve requirement on banks was increased to manage the liquidity impact of forex inflows;Capital Account controls were eased in past decade but remain restrictive;China remains relatively closed;Were capital controls effective? Flows do not appear sensitive to interest rate differential;But sensitive to US interest rate;What will happen to capital flowswith liberalization?;What happened in other countries? ;Portfolio inflows increased and..;… as did other investment flows. ;Capital account liberalization was almost always followed by increases in gross foreign assets;..and often also increases in gross foreign liabilities.;Recent IMF study predicts rise in Chinese assets with liberalization of capital account;Experience of other countries: liberalization often followed by exchange rate or banking crisis;Some country cases;Benefits of opening the capital account in China;Risks of opening the capital account  in China;;Steps toward successful Capital Account Liberalization (IMF A4 2012);Steps toward Capital Account Liberalization cont. ;Use qualified foreign and domestic institutional investor framework to gradually open capital account ;group(5 minute discussion in groups of 5 or 6 and report back);Summary