某互联网战略资料.pptx

STRATEGY AND THE INTERNET: TRENDS AND PREDICTIONSReal Tech ConferencePeter StangerE-COMMERCE IS DEAD“E-Commerce Is Dead, Long Live E-Commerce” The Industry Standard, April 2000“Going, Going, Gone: Business-to-Consumer Sector Goes Bust”F, April 2000“Can you build a brand online selling third-party goods? The answer is no, even though everyone used to think the answer was yes”Bryan Rutbert, Warburg Dillon Read“The living dead have gotten away with murder because the public markets have funded riskier ventures. Look at A - if could be the biggest living dead the public markets have ever seen.”Warren Packard, Draper Fisher JurvetsonTOM SIEBELCEO, Siebel Systems“If you can’t generate profits, significant market share and customer satisfaction, you re out of business.”“On the B2B exchange side, I don’t think anyone will survive. They are all gone.”TravelocityB$123BExpediaDEWebvanPricelineeBay$11.4BAmazonAll OtherAmazoneBayTHE CAPITAL MARKETS HAD IT ALL WRONGIS THE REVOLUTION OVER?July 28, 1794THE BUMPY RIDE OF ECONOMIC REVOLUTIONS1860 -- 1925Lower processing costs ...… lower storage costs ...120IndexWorkers per bushel of manufactured cotton$/MBAverageHD sizein PC atretail(GB)Value, costEngland 1770-83100 100Value increases as the square of connections80 80Harddrivesize (GB)Price of the Model T touring car1908-20Profit60 Cost increases linearly with connections60Loss40 Cost ($/MB)4020 Price of CPU20computing power0 $/MIPS 1982-95012345678910n0177017751780ConnectionsValue191019151920198519901995n(n-1)v6v12v20v30v42v56v72v90v02vCostF+0F+ 2cF+ 3cF+ 4cF+ 5cF+ 6cF+ 7cF+ 8cF+ 9cF+ 10cF+ nc… with increased throughput ...… and powerful network economics105Fiber capacity1041031020TimeFUNDAMENTAL FORCES ARE AT WORKCyrixMANY INDUSTRIES EXPERIENCING A REDEFINITION OF COMPETITIVE BOUNDARIES COMPUTER INDUSTRYLONG DISTANCE IBM , DigitalATT, MCI and SprintRetailSales/marketingAccount managementBillingMarketing, sales, and distributionWholesale (Network)Design/buildOperations/m