TED演讲-了解中国的崛起.docxVIP

精品文档交流 精品文档交流 Martin Jacques： Understanding the rise of China About this talk Speaki ng at a TED Salon in London, econo mist Marti n Jacques asks: How do we in the West make sense of Chi na and its phe nomenal rise? The author of Whe n China Rules the World, he exam ines why the West ofte n puzzles over the grow ing power of the Chin ese economy, and offers three buildi ng blocks for un dersta nding what Chi na is and will become. About Martin Jacques Marti n Jacques is the author of Whe n Chi na Rules the World, and a colu mnist for the Guardia n and New Statesma n. He was a co-fo un der of the thi nk tank Demos. The world is cha nging with really remarkable speed. If you look at the chart at the top here, youll see that in 2025, these Goldma n Sachs projections suggest that the Chinese economy will be almost the same size as the America n economy. And if you look at the chart for 2050, its projected that the Chinese economy will be twice the size of the America n economy, and the In dia n economy will be almost the same size as the America n economy. And we should bear in mind here that these projecti ons were draw n up before the Western finan cial crisis. A couple of weeks ago, I was looki ng at the latest projectio n by BNP Paribas for whe n Chi na will have a larger economy tha n the Un ited States. Goldma n Sachs projected 2027. The post-crisis projectio n is 2020. Thats just a decade away. China is going to change the world in two fun dame ntal respects. First of all, its a huge develop ing country with a population of 1.3 billion people, which has been growing for over 30 years at around 10 perce nt a year. And within a decade, it will have the largest economy in the world. Never before in the moder n era has the largest economy in the world bee n that of a develop ing coun try, rather tha n a developed coun try. Secon dly, for the first time in the moder n era, the dominant country in the world -which I thi nk is what China will become -- will be not from