15 Backward induction chess, strategies, and credible threats分析和总结分析和总结.docxVIP

Game Theory: Lecture 15 Transcript Overview: We first discuss Zermelos theorem: that games like tic-tac-toe or chess have a solution. That is, either there is a way for player 1 to force a win, or there is a way for player 1 to force a tie, or there is a way for player 2 to force a win. The proof is by induction. Then we formally define and informally discuss both perfect information and strategies in such games. This allows us to find Nash equilibria in sequential games. But we find that some Nash equilibria are inconsistent with backward induction. In particular, we discuss an example that involves a threat that is believed in an equilibrium but does not seem credible. October 29, 2007 back Professor Ben Polak: So last time we finished up by playing the game of Nim and youll remember, I hope, that the game of Nim was a game where there was two piles of stones--we made do with lines on the board--and the winner was the person who picked up the last stone. Remember you had to pick piles. I want to use the game of Nim to make a transition here. So what we had pointed out about the game of Nim was it illustrated very nicely for us that games can have first mover advantages or they can have second mover advantages. A very small change in the game, essentially a very small change in where we started from, could switch a game from a game with a first mover advantage to a game with a second mover advantage. Now today, I want to just draw a slightly grander lesson out of that game. So not only was it the case that the game sometimes has first mover advantages and sometimes has second mover advantages, but moreover, we could tell when it had a first mover advantage and we could tell when it had a second mover advantage. Is that right? When we actually looked at the initial set up of those stones, we knew immediately thats a game in which Player 1 is going to win, or alternatively, we knew immediately thats a game which Player 2 is going to win. Now it turns out that that id