中国国内游客数量的时间序列分析.pdfVIP

目录 摘 要 2 Abstract 3 1 引言 1 2 预备知识 2 2.1 模型的预处理 2 2.2 模型的识别、定阶 3 2.3 模型的检验、拟合及预测 3 3 中国国内游客数量的建模及预 4 3.1 数据分析 4 3.2 模型预处理 6 3.3 模型定阶 9 3.4 模型检验 9 3.5 模型的预测效果评价 10 4. 结论 11 中国国内游客数量的时间序列分析 摘 要 本文将 1994 至 2014 年中国国内游客数量的年度数据作为一个时间序列，找出国内游客数 量的改变与时间之间的关系，建立相关的模型，对中国国内游客未来五年的数量进行预测分析， 得出如果对旅游结构进行相应的调整，对旅游消费市场的开拓提出有利的策略和思路，那么旅游 经济的结构将向合理化、健康化进展，进一步促进我国经济进展的结论。 该论文有图 8 幅，表 2 个，参考文献 8 篇。 关键词：时间序列 模型 预测 国内游客数量 Applied Time Series Analysis of Chinese domestic tourists Abstract In this paper, we consider the annual data of the number of domestic tourists in China from 1994 to 2014 as a time series to find out the relationship between the change of the number of domestic tourists and the time, and establish the relevant models to forecast the number of Chinese domestic tourists in the next five years. It is concluded that if the tourism structure be adjusted and the favorable strategies and ideas are put forward for the development of the tourism consumption market, and the structure of the tourism economy will bring about the rationalization and healthy development and further promote Chinas economic development. The paper has Figure 8, Table 2, reference 8 articles. Key Words: Applied Time Series Analysis Model Predict Number of domestic tourists