东南亚金融危机与国际游资——兼论中国国际游资问题.docxVIP

目录 东南亚金融危机与国际游资——兼论中国国际游资问题 摘要：近些年来，中国经济持续快速发展；对外贸易多年保持顺差，这使人民币升值成为必然。对人民币升值的心理预期致使大量国际游资流向中国大陆从事逃汇、套利活动。20 世纪末，正是由于国际游资的剧烈冲击引发了东南亚金融危机。金融危机的表现为东南亚国家各国的货币在短期内纷纷大幅贬值，由此造成了东南亚各国金融混乱、政局动荡、经济萧条，从此也结束了东南亚各国经济发展的“黄金时期”。今天，中国面对国际游资的剧烈冲击是否会爆发金融危机呢？由于中国目前尚未对外开放，且并未形成发达的期货市场，故金融危机不会在中国发生。但，大规模国际游资的流入，却导致了中国房地产市场产生了经济泡沫；同时使央行宏观经济的调控陷入了两难境地；最后，国际游资的流入无疑使我国的外汇储备进一步增多，进而导致人民币升值压力进一步加大。本为试图运用《宏观经济学》和《国际金融学》的理论知识分析东南亚金融危机，以期从中得出一些对我国经济发展有益的建议。 关键词：东南亚金融危机 国际游资 中国房价 金融市场 ABSTRACT: Recent years, the Chinese economy continues to develop fast; the foreign trade many years maintenance favorable balance, this causes the Renminbi revaluation to become inevitably. The Renminbi revaluation psychological anticipated causes massive international floating capitals to flow to mainland China to be engaged in the flight of foreign exchange, the arbitrage activity. At the end of 20th centenary, the international floating capital fierce impact has initiated the Southeast Asia financial crisis. The financial crisis performanced that the Southeast Asia various countries depreciate largely in the short-term, political chaotic, economic depression, from this time on had also finished the Southeast Asia various countries economy development golden time. Nowdays, whether does China break out financial crisis in the situation of hot money attacking? Thanks to China at present not yet opening to the outside world, also did not form the developed futures market, therefore the financial crisis cannot occur in China. But, the large-scale international floating capital inflow, caused the China real estate market to produce economical froth; and make Peoples Bank of China’s Macroeconomic regulation and control in difficulty; at last, The international floating capital inflow makes our countrys foreign exchange reserve further to increase, then causes the Renminbi revaluation pressure further to enlarge. This articl try to use Macroeconomics and International finance study’s knowledge to analyze Southeast Asia