城市化进程对土地利用变化的影响分析——以宁波市为例.docVIP

PAGE PAGE 22 城市化进程对土地利用变化的影响分析 ——以宁波市为例 摘要：随着我国城市化程度不断推进，所引起的城市人口数量增加与城市规模的扩大将导致城市土地利用发生变化。土地利用变化既是城市化进程的体现，也是城市化发展所引起城市经济水平、社会发展和生态环境等因素发生变化的反映。宁波市是我国重要的港口城市，长江三角洲南翼的经济中心，其城市化发展迅速，伴随着土地利用结构也发生了相应的变化。本文基于宁波市2004-2013年城市化水平及土地利用变化状况，结合相关统计数据，运用相关分析，发现宁波市城市化进程与土地利用变化联系紧密；进一步利用主成分分析进行研究，确定影响土地利用变化的主导因子包括人口数量与结构、居民生活水平、经济发展状况和生态环境；根据得到的主导因子，分别建立与生态用地和建设用地的多元线性回归模型，分析最终得出结论与相关建议。 关键词：城市化土地利用变化主导因子 Urbanization and land utilization change analysis - A case study in Ningbo Abstract: With the continuous progress of urbanization in China, the increasing number of urban population and the expansion of the city scale will lead to the change of urban land utilization. Land utilization change not only results from the process of urbanization, but also is the reflection of the urban economy, social development and environment. Ningbo is an important port city in China， economic center of Yangtze River delta. Its rapidly development of urbanization, along with land utilization structure also undergone a corresponding change. According to the characteristics of the urbanization development and land utilization change in Ningbo during 2004-2013, combined with relevant statistics and correlation analysis, found that Ningbo urbanization and land utilization change contact closely; and further apply principal component analysis and determine the impact of land utilization change leading factors including the number and structure of the population, living standards, economic development and ecological environment; and according to the dominant factor, establishing multiple linear regression model between ecological land and construction land, analyzed and concluded suggestions and conclusions. Keywords: Urbanization; land utilization; dominant factor 一、绪论 （一）研究背景及意义 城市化进程的三个重要标志为城市人口占城市总人口的比重增加、产业结构由以第一产业为主逐渐向第二、三产业转移以及城市用地规模的扩大。 中国城市化进程，相较西方国家起步较晚且发展不平均。自第一次鸦片战争开始，到抗日战争结束，期间中国一直受到国外势力的侵略，导致城市化的发展不均衡。新中国成立后，发展环境稍有起色，然而中间又经历了十年的文化大革命，导致这期间中国城市化一直处于停滞状态，这一路走来，中国城市化发展道路坎坷曲折。但值得庆幸的是，改革开