摩根士丹利-全球投资策略-供应链关键点追踪和拐点监测-2022.5.25-46页.docx

PAGE PAGE 10 May 25, 2022 09:00 PM GMT May 25, 2022 09:00 PM GMT MORGAN STANLEY ASIA (SINGAPORE) PTE.+ Daniel K Blake EQUITY STRATEGIST Daniel.Blake@ +65 6834-6597 MORGAN STANLEY CO. LLC Michael D Zezas, CFA STRATEGIST Michael.Zezas@ +1 212 761-8609 Seth B Carpenter Global Supply ChainsSupply Chain Chokepoint Global Supply Chains Supply Chain Chokepoint Tracker and Inflection Monitor Our tracker of supply-chain conditions shows a weakening demand picture but little aggregate improvement in supply chain dynamics as Chinas Covid-containment impacts domestic CHIEF GLOBAL ECONOMIST Seth.Carpenter@ Erik W Woodring EQUITY ANALYST Erik.Woodring@ +1 212 761-0370 +1 212 296-8083 logistics, while global energy supply is still falling short of expectations. MORGAN STANLEY ASIA LIMITED+ Robin Xing CHIEF CHINA ECONOMIST Robin.Xing@ +852 2848-6511 Inflection Monitor highlights weaker demand but still tight supply: This is the Shawn Kim third edition of our regular tracker linked to our flagship Blue Paper on Supply EQUITY ANALYST Shawn.Kim@ +852 3963-1005 Chains. Our Supply Chain Conditions Gallery below shows little aggregate Qianlei Fan, CFA improvement given emerging issues from Chinas Covid-containment policies and ongoing European energy shortfalls vs. expectations (from Russia and a lack of a EQUITY ANALYST Qianlei.Fan@ +852 2239-1875 Derrick Y Kam new Iran Deal). That said, softening demand and margin impacts are becoming ECONOMIST Derrick.Kam@ +852 2239-7826 In Semis and Hardware, our global analysts see a deepening slowdown in MORGAN STANLEY TAIWAN LIMITED+ notebook orders, with the China smartphone market also deteriorating. Charlie Chan EQUITY ANALYST Charlie.Chan@ +886 2 2730-1725 Supply chain diversification still picking up: Our Global Strategists, Economists and Equity Analysts came together in Navigating Slowbalization and a Multipolar World to analyze how geopolitical economic trends increasingly incentivize supply chain realignment and