J.P.摩根-全球投资策略-长期走高：在中期内重新分配农业价格的热度-2022.6.2-26页.docx

Agricultural Markets Quarterly Higher for longer - redistributing the heat in agri prices over the medium term The precarious situation of historically high food prices and risks of physical shortages of cereals and vegetable oils over the years ahead presents an immensely challenging outlook for agricultural supply chains and risk management. We now see agri prices remaining elevated through 2023 and likely beyond. Historical episodes of food price inflation have typically been driven by supply side shocks, often from adverse weather. For agri markets, this time is different, and far more complex and likely longer to overcome-despite the aggressive selloff across markets through late May. Despite a mild QOQ expansion in agri commodity stocks (ex-wheat), our revised fundamental balances continue to show YOY draws in inventories through 2022/23 with the exception of soybeans. Much of the alleviation of Global Commodities Research 02 June 2022 Global Commodities Research Tracey Allen (44-20) 7134-6732 tracey.l.allen@ J.P. Morgan Securities plc Ruhani Aggarwal (91-22) 6157 3576 ruhani.aggarwal@ J.P. Morgan India Private Limited Figure 1: Agri commodity price movements – active contract critical tightness over the quarter has been driven by declining animal feed demand – the most sensitive of demand segments to price and recession, outpacing production setbacks. Relative to the pre-conflict levels, MDEB Palm Oil, CBOT Wheat and Corn are trading higher only 8%, 30% and 14%, respectively, despite a tighter exportable supply. This is largely attributed to stymied investor risk appetite amid discussions of a humanitarian export corridor for Ukrainian food exports, downside global growth risks and hand to mouth consumer buying, which has driven a downward revision in our price forecasts through 2022. Trade recommendations: We stay long the agri complex via an index. Our price forecasts in 2022 and particularly 2023 sit well above current futures curves, and consumers a