俄罗斯汽车工业当前趋势和展望2020年.pdf

The Russian and CIS automotive industry •Current trends and outlook •March 2020 Contents 1. Foreword 2. Russia’s economy and automotive industry drivers 3. Current trends in the global automotive market Passenger car and light commercial vehicle (LCV) 4. market 5. Dealership networks and auto loans 6. Truck and bus markets 7. CIS automotive market Page 2 The Russian and CIS automotive industry Introduction Alexei Ivanov The Russian market for passenger cars and light commercial vehicles (LCVs) Partner, CIS Transaction shrank by 2.3% in 2019 due to an economic growth slowdown, lower oil prices Advisory Leader and the devaluation of the Russian ruble, all of which affected consumer spending. Demand fell following a scale-down in government programs aimed at bolstering consumer spending and a 9% increase in car prices that grew faster than Andrey Tomyshev inflation as the Russian ruble weakened while VAT rose to 20% in 2019. Partner, Head of the CIS Automotive Macroeconomic risks and the inflation adjustment to Russias recycling fees are Group projected to push car sales further down in 2020 and drive up prices, especially for imports and vehicles with low localization content. At the same time, Russia’s market has high growth potential due to the lower number of cars per capita compared with Western countries and their old age. Sergey Pavlov EY presents an analy