chinas-export中国进出口分析外文文献.pdf

Rev World Econ (2013) 149:565–585 DOI 10.1007/s10290-013-0149-2 ORI GIN AL PA PER China’s fare share? The growth of Chinese exports in world trade Steven Husted • Shuichiro Nishioka Published online: 6 February 2013 Kiel Institute 2013 Abstract The growth of Chinese exports in market share over the past two dec- ades is a singular event in the history of world trade. Using data from 1995–2010, we document this growth in a variety of ways. We show that the expanded trade is pervasive. Virtually every country in the world has seen China claim a larger share of its import market. Then, we use Constant Market Share analysis to determine which country or countries have lost market share as China’s trade has grown. Contrary to much discussion in the popular press, we find strong evidence that other developing countries have not seen export shares fall as a result of China’s gains. Rather, our results suggest that China’s share growth has come largely at the expense of exporters based in developed countries, especially Japan and the United States. Keywords Chinese exports Constant market share analysis Export shares JEL Classification F14 P33 1 Introduction Over the past two decades the Chinese economy has grown at a remarkable pace. Between 1995 and 2007 Chinese real GDP grew at an average annual rate of more S. Husted () Department of Economics, University of Pittsburgh, 4508 WW Posvar Hall, Pittsburgh, PA 15216, USA e-mail: husted1@ S. Nishioka Department of Economics, West Virginia University, 1601 University Avenue, Morgantown, WV 26506-6025, USA e-mail: Shuichiro.Nishioka@ 123 566 S. Husted, S. Nishioka than 10 %. Per capita real GDP rose by 250 % over this period.1 One of the leading factors d