促进中华人民共和国长期增长的改革.docx

Summary 概要 Economic growth in the People’s Republic of China (PRC) moderated in the past decade, even before the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic. A critical question is to which level of gross domestic product (GDP) growth the country will return after COVID-19 and what its long- term growth prospects are, given its rapidly aging society, the continued dependence of growth on investment, and a changed international environment. 过去十年，中华人民共和国（中国）经济增长有所放缓，甚至早在新型冠状病毒疫情暴发前就出现了趋缓迹象。鉴于中国社会快速老龄化、增长对投资持续依赖及国际环境发生改变等因素，一个关键问题浮出水面：中国国内生产总值（GDP）增长在后疫情时代将恢复到何水平？其长期增长前景又将如何？ According to Asian Development Bank estimates, the PRC’s potential GDP growth could average 5.3% in 2020–2025 before gradually declining to 2.0% in 2036–2040. Capital and total factor productivity (TFP) are the major contributors to future economic growth. Meanwhile, a shrinking working-age population will increasingly weigh on growth, while the contribution of human capital to growth is expected to be comparatively small. 据亚洲开发银行估算，2020—2025年间，中国年均潜在GDP增速可达5.3%，随后将逐步降到 2036—2040年间的2.0%。资本和全要素生产率是未来经济增长的主要推动力。但劳动年龄人口规模不断减少将使增长进一步承压，预计人力资本对增长的贡献则相对较小。 This brief suggests a series of reforms to increase potential growth. To address the rapid demographic aging issue, mitigating the impact of a smaller labor force is key. Measures could include raising the retirement age, improving health care, raising female workforce participation rates, and increasing labor mobility by loosening residence permit restrictions. To boost human capital formation, improving the quantity and quality of education, especially in rural areas, is needed to narrow the urban–rural gap in education. Reform should include increasing years of schooling and supporting the children of migrant workers, as well as improving the skills and qualifications of the workforce. 为提升潜在增速，本简报提出进行一系列改革。减轻劳动力规模减小带来的影响是应对人口快速老龄化的关键。相关措施可包括：延迟退休年龄，改进医疗卫生，提高女性劳动参与率，通过放宽居留许可限制来增加劳动力流动性等。为促进人力资本的形成，需从“质”和“量”两方面改进教育，特别是农村地区的教育面貌，以缩小城乡教育差距。改革措施应包括：增加受教育年限