公共债务和家庭通胀预期 Public debt and household inflation expectations 2023-bis.docxVIP

BIS Working Papers No 1082 Public debt and household inflation expectations by Francesco Grigoli and Damiano Sandri Monetary and Economic Department March 2023 JEL classification: E31, E52, E58. Keywords: Public debt, inflation expectations, monetary finance, fiscal dominance. ISSN 1020-0959 (print) ISSN 1682-7678 (online) BIS Working Papers are written by members of the Monetary and Economic Department of the Bank for International Settlements, and from time to time by other economists, and are published by the Bank. The papers are on subjects of topical interest and are technical in character. The views expressed in them are those of their authors and not necessarily the views of the BIS. This publication is available on the BIS website (). ? Bank for International Settlements 2023. All rights reserved. Brief excerpts may be reproduced or translated provided the source is stated. 1 Public Debt and Household Inflation Expectations? Francesco Grigoli Central Bank of the UAE Damiano Sandri BIS and CEPR March 6, 2023 Abstract We use randomized controlled trials in the US, UK, and Brazil to examine the causal effect of public debt on household inflation expectations. We find that people underestimate public debt levels and increase inflation expectations when informed about the correct levels. The extent of the revisions is proportional to the size of the information surprise. Confidence in the central bank considerably reduces the sensi- tivity of inflation expectations to public debt. We also show that people associate high public debt with stagflationary effects and that the sensitivity of inflation expectations to public debt is considerably higher for women and low-income individuals. Keywords: Public debt, inflation expectations, monetary finance, fiscal dominance JEL Codes: E31, E52, E58 ? Francesco Grigoli, francesco.grigoli@.ae; Damiano Sandri, damiano.sandri@. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and