毕业论文-论长城汽车的财务风险识别与防范.docVIP

PAGE II 论长城汽车的财务风险识别与防范 摘 要 随着我国经济的不断发展及科技的进步，汽车行业正在逐渐发展壮大。然而，在汽车行业迅速发展的同时，企业也面临着越来越激烈的竞争，因此可能由于各种无法预料或控制的因素，而产生财务风险,使企业蒙受损失。由于汽车行业的财务风险不仅关系到整个行业的经济利益，而且也与股东利益、证券市场及国民经济等密切相关。因此，如何有效地识别并防范财务风险，加强风险管理，使汽车行业上市公司更好地发展，是财务信息使用者需要关注的重要问题。 本文以汽车行业上市公司中的长城汽车为样本，综合运用基于财务报表层面的财务指标单变量分析和基于Z-score模型的多变量分析方法，构建了长城汽车的财务风险的识别模型。本文主要从以下几个方面展开研究：首先，对国内外财务风险相关理论进行了回顾；其次，主要围绕所选取的样本，运用单变量及多变量模型进行分析，总结出长城汽车目前的财务状况及可能面临的财务风险。最后，针对长城汽车所处的行业特征及财务风险状况提出了一些建议，企业应不断提高财务风险意识，建立财务风险预警体系，以使自身在同行业中保持领先地位。 关键词：财务风险；财务指标；长城汽车  Abstract With the rapid economic development and technological advances in our country, the auto industry is?growing and developing. Meanwhile the development of auto industry, enterprise is also facing with increasing competition. Therefore, the possibility to make the enterprise not achieve the expected financial returns and result in losses caused by various unpredictable factors beyond the control. Because of the financial risk is not only related to the economic benefits of the auto industry, but also concerns the interests of shareholders, stock market and national economy. Thus, users of financial information regards it an important issue, which is that how to effectively recognize and prevent financial risks, enhance risk management, make the auto industry enterprise to be better. This paper select Great Wall Motors from public company as a sample, using the univariate discriminated method that is based on financial statement and the multiple discriminated analysis which is based on Z-score model, building the model of Great Wall Motors’ Financial risk identification. The paper study from the following aspects: Firstly, reviewing the financial risks theory both in abroad and in home. Secondly, According to the selected samples, summarizing the current financial situation of Great Wall Motors and financial risks may face by the univariate discriminated method and multiple discriminated analysis. Finally, According to which the auto industry characteristics and fina