清原地区0816洪水灾害临界雨量分析.pdf

清原地区“0816”洪水灾害临界雨量分析 刘鸣彦;王颖;郑石;龚强;周晓宇;崔妍;张鸿;葛权哲 【摘要】以抚顺清原地区南口前镇浑河支流（包括海阳河和康家堡河）流域为研 究对象，根据流域周围雨量站的降水资料、SRTM 3 全球数字高程模型和辽宁省土 地利用类型等资料，利用 FloodArea 淹没模型对 2013 年 8 月 16 日抚顺清原地 区特大暴雨洪涝过程进行模拟。结果表明：FloodArea 淹没模型模拟的清原地区 暴雨洪涝过程降水量最大值出现在 2013 年 8 月 16 日 17 时，最大小时降水量达 61.7 mm ；17 日 01 时后，降水过程结束。随着降水量积累，南口前镇浑河支流 流域的水位逐渐上涨，流域内海阳村与南口前村水位上涨迅速，16 日 23 时隐患 点淹没深度出现最大峰值，其中 ，南口前村淹没深度达 4.12 m ，海阳村淹没深度 达 2.32 m ；至 17 日 01 时，隐患点淹没深度逐渐降低 ，洪水继续向下游集中 ，下 游水深持续增加 ，最后流入浑河，结束暴雨洪涝过程。通过分析隐患点的逐时淹没 深度与流域面雨量的相关关系 ，推算清原地区暴雨洪水过程山洪灾害不同风险等级 的隐患点致灾临界面雨量阈值；其中 ，南三家村与康家堡村计算结果与实际相差较 大，而南口前村与海阳村 4 个山洪灾害风险等级的临界面雨量阈值分别为 33.2、 43.2、53.2 mm 和 63.2 mm 及 41.3、57.6、73.8 mm 和 90.0 mm。%Hunhe River tributary located in Nankouqian town of Qingyuan county of Fushun was used as a case study,including Haiyang River and Kangjiabao River.Based on the precipitation data from stations around the river and global digital elevation model data from SRTM3 as well as land use types of Liaoning province and so on,a storm flood process on August 16,2013 in Qingyuan of Fushun was simulated using a FloodArea model.The re-sults indicate that the maximum rainfall occurs at 17:00 on August 16 of 2013,and the maximum hourly rainfall reaches 61.7 mm in this storm flood process.The process ends at 01:00 on August 17.With the accumulation of precipitation,water level of the river increases gradually,especially in Nankouqian town and Haiyang town.The maximum value of flood depth at warning spots occurs at 23:00 on August 16.For example,the flood depths in Nankouqian town and Haiyang town are 4.12 m and 2.32 m,respectively.The flood depth at warning spots in-creases continuously until 01:00 on August 17.Then it decreases as the flood pools into midstream and down-stream and finally into the Hunhe River.According to a relationship between hourly flood depth and areal precipi-tation,the critical areal precipitation of different grades at warning spots can be calculated.Among them,the values in Nans