Volterra级数建模预报方法研究及在船舶运动预报中应用的中期报告.docxVIP

Volterra级数建模预报方法研究及在船舶运动预报中应用的中期报告 摘要： 本中期报告主要研究了将Volterra级数建模方法应用于船舶运动预报中的可行性以及预报精度，并分析了该方法的优点和不足。首先，介绍了Volterra级数的基本理论和基本形式，并对其进行了数学推导，得到了用于船舶运动预报的具体预测模型。接着，通过实际船舶运动数据的拟合分析，对该方法的预报效果进行了验证，并与其他传统的预报方法进行了比较。结果表明，Volterra级数在船舶运动预报中具有一定的优势，能够有效地提高预报精度，但在实际应用过程中，还需要进一步考虑其他因素的影响，如天气条件、船舶载重等。 关键词：Volterra级数；船舶运动预报；预报精度；拟合分析 Abstract: This mid-term report mainly studies the feasibility and accuracy of applying the Volterra series modeling method to ship motion prediction, and analyzes the advantages and disadvantages of this method. Firstly, the basic theory and basic form of Volterra series are introduced, and the specific prediction model for ship motion prediction is obtained through mathematical derivation. Then, through the fitting analysis of actual ship motion data, the prediction effect of the method is verified, and compared with other traditional prediction methods. The results show that the Volterra series has certain advantages in ship motion prediction, can effectively improve the prediction accuracy, but in the actual application process, it is also necessary to consider other factors, such as weather conditions, ship loading, etc. Keywords: Volterra series; ship motion prediction; prediction accuracy; fitting analysis