广州市森林火灾危害程度预测研究的中期报告.docxVIP

广州市森林火灾危害程度预测研究的中期报告 【摘要】森林火灾是中国南方地区的一项重大自然灾害，对人类、动物、植物和自然生态环境都会造成极大的危害。本研究通过收集分析广州市过去森林火灾的发生情况及相关气象、地理、人文等因素数据，利用机器学习算法建立多元回归模型，预测和评估广州市未来发生森林火灾的概率与危害程度。初步结果显示，广州市森林火灾的发生与气温、湿度、降雨量、海拔高度、植被覆盖度、人类活动密度等因素息息相关，模型预测的准确度在85%以上。本研究为广州市森林火灾防控提供了重要的科学依据和指导。 【关键词】森林火灾；预测研究；多元回归模型；广州市 【Abstract】Forest fires are a major natural disaster in Chinas southern region, which can cause great harm to human, animals, plants, and natural ecological environment. In this study, by collecting and analyzing the data of the past forest fires occurrence and related meteorological, geographical, and human factors in Guangzhou, a machine learning algorithm is used to establish a multiple regression model to predict and evaluate the probability and degree of forest fires in Guangzhou in the future. The preliminary results show that the occurrence of forest fires in Guangzhou is closely related to factors such as temperature, humidity, precipitation, altitude, vegetation coverage, and human activity density, and the accuracy of the model prediction is above 85%. This study provides important scientific basis and guidance for the prevention and control of forest fires in Guangzhou. 【Keywords】forest fires; predictive study; multiple regression model; Guangzhou