基于BP神经网络的温州市地质灾害主控因素台风降雨空间分布及动态预测的中期报告.docxVIP

基于BP神经网络的温州市地质灾害主控因素台风降雨空间分布及动态预测的中期报告 摘要： 本报告基于BP神经网络模型，研究温州市地质灾害主控因素中的台风降雨空间分布及动态预测，以期为地质灾害的防治提供科学依据。通过对温州市1990-2019年的气象、地质灾害和地理环境数据进行分析，得出多个影响地质灾害的关键因素，包括年降雨量、坡度、土壤类型等。通过归一化处理，建立了BP神经网络模型，并在该模型基础上进行了台风降雨空间分布及动态预测。结果表明，该模型能够较为准确地预测未来一段时间内台风降雨的空间分布和强度，为地质灾害预防和减缓提供了有益的参考。 关键词：BP神经网络；台风降雨；空间分布；动态预测；温州市；地质灾害 Abstract: Based on BP neural network model, this report studies the spatial distribution and dynamic prediction of typhoon rainfall in the main controlling factors of geological disasters in Wenzhou City, in order to provide scientific basis for the prevention and control of geological disasters. Through the analysis of meteorological, geological disaster and geographical environmental data in Wenzhou City from 1990 to 2019, several key factors affecting geological disasters are identified, including annual precipitation, slope, soil type, etc. After normalization, the BP neural network model is established and used for spatial distribution and dynamic prediction of typhoon rainfall. The results show that the model can predict the spatial distribution and intensity of typhoon rainfall in the future, providing useful reference for the prevention and mitigation of geological disasters. Keywords: BP neural network; typhoon rainfall; spatial distribution; dynamic prediction; Wenzhou City; geological disaster.