杭州市生态足迹动态分析与预测研究的中期报告.docxVIP

杭州市生态足迹动态分析与预测研究的中期报告 摘要： 本文是杭州市生态足迹动态分析与预测研究的中期报告。通过对杭州市2005至2018年的环境数据和经济数据进行统计和分析，发现虽然杭州市的生态足迹总量呈现逐年增长的趋势，但其生态资产总量也在不断增加，从而使生态足迹与生态资源的比值逐年下降。同时，杭州市的人均生态足迹也呈现逐年下降的趋势，这意味着每个杭州市民对生态环境的影响也在逐年减轻。 在预测部分，本文采用熵权法和神经网络模型，对未来5年的杭州市生态足迹进行预测。预测结果显示，未来5年杭州市的生态足迹将继续逐年增加，但增速会逐渐放缓。其中，消费领域的生态足迹将是杭州市生态问题的重要来源。 关键词：杭州市；生态足迹；生态资产；熵权法；神经网络模型 Abstract： This report is the midterm report of the research on dynamic analysis and prediction of ecological footprint in Hangzhou. Through statistical analysis of environmental and economic data from 2005 to 2018, it is found that although the total ecological footprint of Hangzhou is increasing year by year, the total ecological asset is also increasing, which leads to the ratio of ecological footprint to ecological resource decreasing year by year. At the same time, the per capita ecological footprint of Hangzhou is decreasing year by year, which means that the impact of each Hangzhou citizen on the ecological environment is also decreasing year by year. In the prediction part, this report uses entropy weight method and neural network model to predict the ecological footprint of Hangzhou in the next 5 years. The prediction results show that the ecological footprint of Hangzhou will continue to increase year by year in the next 5 years, but the growth rate will gradually slow down. Among them, the ecological footprint in the consumption field will be an important source of ecological problems in Hangzhou. Keywords: Hangzhou; ecological footprint; ecological asset; entropy weight method; neural network model