基于机器学习的中国冬季气温影响因子分析及模型估算.pdfVIP

doi:10.11676/qxxb2023气象学报

基于机器学习的中国冬季气温影响因子分析

及模型估算*

1211

武玮辰

魏凤英

王亚强

朱恩达

1211

WU

Weichen

WEI

Fengying

WANG

Yaqiang

ZHU

Enda

1.

中国气象科学研究院人工智能气象应用研究所，北京，100081

2.

中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室，北京，100081

1.

InstituteofArtificialIntelligenceforMeteorology，ChineseAcademyofMeteorologicalSciences，Beijing100081，China

2.

StateKeyLaboratoryofSevereWeather，ChineseAcademyofMeteorologicalSciences，Beijing100081，China

2022-04-27收稿，2022-07-15改回.

武玮辰，魏凤英，王亚强，朱恩达.

2023.

基于机器学习的中国冬季气温影响因子分析及模型估算.

气象学报，81（1）：163-174

WuWeichen，WeiFengying，WangYaqiang，ZhuEnda.2023.Machinelearning-basedregressionanalysisofthewintertemperature

anomaliesinChinaandassociatedinfluencingfactors.ActaMeteorologicaSinica，81（1）:163-174

Abstract

In

this

study,

the

mean

winter

temperature

collected

at

160

stations

in

China

from

1951

to

2021

and

a

number

of

atmospheric

circulation

and

sea

temperature

indices

are

used

to

investigate

the

relationship

between

the

distribution

of

winter

temperature

anomalies

and

the

atmospheric

circulation

and

external

forcing

factors.

A

model

of

fitting

is

also

established

by

using

machine

learning

methods.

In

this

way,

we

can

understand

to

what

extent

the

screened

combination

of

influencing

factors

can

explain

the

distribution

of

winter

temperature

anomalies

in

China.

The

Least

Absolute

Shrinkage

and

Selection

Operator

(LASSO)

algorithm

is

used

to

extract

the

influencing

factors

related

to

winter

temperature

anomalies.

In

addition,

to

reflect

the

nonlinear

relationship

between

thes