(6)--MaritimeEconomics航运经济与政策.pdfVIP

Costs,Revenue

6andCashflow

Annualincometwentypounds,annualexpenditurenineteennineteensix,resulthappiness.

Annualincometwentypounds,annualexpendituretwentypoundsoughtandsix,resultmisery

(MrMicawberinDavidCopperfield)

6.1CASHFLOWANDTHEARTOFSURVIVAL

Theimpactoffinancialpressuresonshipowners’decisions

Inthischapterwelookatshippingeconomicsfromtheperspectiveoftheindividual

shippingcompany.Everycompanyfacesthechallengeofnavigatingitswaythroughthe

successionofbooms,recessionsanddepressionswhichcharacterizetheshipping

market.Duringprosperousperiodswhenfundsfloodin,itmustmeetthechallengeof

investingwiselyforfuturegrowthandacommercialreturnoncapital.Theseedsof

futureproblemsareoftensownundertheheadyinfluenceofmarketsentimentatthe

peakofacycle.Inrecessionsthechallengeistokeepcontrolofthebusinesswhenthe

marketistryingtoforcesurpluscapacityoutofthesystembysqueezingcashflowand

takeadvantageoftheopportunities.Duringtheseperiodstheshippingmarketislikea

marathonraceinwhichonlyalimitednumberofentrantsareallowedtofinish.Therace

hasnofixedlength,itgoesonlapafterlapuntilenoughcompetitorsdropoutfrom

exhaustion,leavingthesurvivingrunnerstopickuptheprizes.

Inthelastresortwhatsortsoutthewinnersfromthelosersisfinancialperformance.

Therisksfacedbyshippingcompaniesareillustratedbyashipsaledecisionreported

inLloyd’sListduringthe1980srecession(Figure6.1).Thiswasatatimewhenthe

freightmarketwasverydepressed,andthearticlereviewstheconsiderationsthat

enteredintothedecisionbyashippingcompanytosellaVLCCfromitsfleet.Although

thisrecessionoccurredmanyye