•Mixedperformance:Boththehospitals,rehabilitationlong-termcaregroupandthebehavioralhealthhomehealth/hospicegroupareoverperformingtheSP500.TheformergroupsportsEBITDAmarginsinthemidteenstolowtwentiesandhas
benefitedfromincreasedsurgeryvolumesaftertheCOVID-19pandemic,whilethelattercontinuestocommandstrongEBITDAmultiplesdespitesomeslowingrevenuegrowthandtighteningmarginsforAmedisysandAveanna.Thevalue-basedcaregroup,muchofwhichwentpublicin2020and2021,sportsnegativeEBITDAoverallandissignificantlyunderperformingthemarket.
•Retailersretrench:UndernewCEOTimWentworth,Walgreensbeganclosing60underperformingVillageMDlocationsin
October,evenasthecompanydoublesdownonitsmessagingarounditscaredeliveryfocus.Theclosuresarepartofabroadercost-cuttingstrategyasWalgreensseesprofitssoftenalongwithreducedCOVID-19vaccinedemand.Meanwhile,CVSbroughtitsvariouscaredeliveryassets—includingCaremark,Cordavis,MinuteClinic,OakStreetHealth,andSignifyHealth—underanewbrand,CVSCarespire.Thetwocompanieswereactivestrategicacquirersofhealthcareproviderassetsin2022and2023butarelikelytositonthesidelinesofMAastheyfocusonprofitabilityandintegrationforexistingplays.
•Troubleforagilon:agilon’sstockplummetedinNovember2023andagaininJanuary2024afterthecompanyreviseditsmedicalmarginandEBITDAguidancedownward,citingutilization2xto3xhigherthanexpectedincategoriesincludingspecialistcare
andoutpatientsurgery.Leadershipcitedthelagofseveralmonthsinclaimsdatausedtoanalyzespendingtrends.agilon’sLTMrevenuemultiplehadalreadydippedto0.7xasofDecember31,2023,downfromahighof5.3xin2021and2.3xin2022.For
value-basedcarecompanies,thismishapunderlinestheimportanceofbuildingrobustdatainfrastructuretoaccurately
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