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GlobalBanksCountry-By-CountryOutlook2024
ForewarnedIsForearmed
November16,2023
Thisreportdoesnotconstitutearatingaction
Primarycontacts
GavinGunning
Melbourne
+61-3-9631-2092
gavin.gunning@
EmmanuelVolland
Paris
+33-14-420-6696
emmanuel.volland@
AlexandreBirry
London
+44-20-7176-7108
alexandre.birry@
Secondarycontacts
BrendanBrowne
NewYork
+1-212-438-7399
brendan.browne@
CynthiaCohenFreue
BuenosAires
+54-11-4891-2161
cynthia.cohenfreue@
ElenaIparraguirre
Madrid
+34-91-389-6963
elena.iparraguirre@
OsmanSattar
London
+44-20-7176-7198
osman.sattar@
MohamedDamak
Dubai
+9-714-372-7153
mohamed.damak@
Contactscontinuedonpage106
GlobalBanksCountry-By-CountryOutlook2024|ForewarnedIsForearmed
Keytakeaways
Ouroutlookforglobalbanksremainssteady.AsofOct.31,2023,79%ofbankratingoutlookswerestable.Thisresilienceislargelyduetosolidcapitalization,improvedprofitability,andstillsoundassetquality.
Theweakeconomicoutlookfor2024willtestbanks'businessvolumes,assetquality,andfinancingconditions.Positively,mostbanks'earningswillcontinuetobenefitfromhighinterestrates.
Keyriskscouldintensify.Althoughnotourbasecase,amarkeddeteriorationofeconomicconditionsinEurope,theU.S.,andChinaispossible,whileinflationremainshigh.TheRussia-UkraineandIsrael-Hamaswarsbringspilloverrisks.
Commercialrealestate(CRE)marketsaresufferingasignificantdownturninsomejurisdictions,withdemandandpricesfalling,especiallyintheU.S.,China,andsomeEuropeancountries.Relatedlosses,althoughmanageable,willbefeltforafewyears.
Wecontinuetoanticipateincreasingcreditdivergence.Pressurewillbemorepronouncedfornonbankfinancialinstitutions(NBFIs)andentitieswithweakfundingprofilesorthosedirectlyexposedtogeopoliticalrisk
Chart1
Stableoutlooktrendsbutbuffersmayfaceasqueeze
Ratingandoutlookdistribution
Stableoutlooksdominateat79%
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