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NBERWORKINGPAPERSERIES
FOODPOLICYINAWARMINGWORLD
AllanHsiao
JacobMosconaKarthikSastry
WorkingPaper32539
/papers/w32539
NATIONALBUREAUOFECONOMICRESEARCH
1050MassachusettsAvenue
Cambridge,MA02138June2024
WethankDaronAcemoglu,KymAnderson,GharadBryan,ShoumitroChatterjee,DaveDonaldson,RobElliot,DiegoK?nzig,IshanNath,VincentPons,RichardRogerson,WolframSchlenker,andseminarparticipantsatPrincetonUniversity,theUniversityofBirmingham,theLondonSchoolofEconomics,JohnsHopkinsSAIS,theSt.LouisFed,the2023NBERFallConferenceonDistributionalImpactsofClimateChangeontheAgriculturalSector,theFall2023CoaseProjectConference,the2024ASSAMeetings,theMacroeconomicImplicationsofClimateChangeWorkshop,andtheHarvardAgricultureandClimateChangeWorkshopforhelpfulcomments.LuongNguyenprovidedexceptionalresearchassistance.TheviewsexpressedhereinarethoseoftheauthorsanddonotnecessarilyreflecttheviewsoftheNationalBureauofEconomicResearch.
NBERworkingpapersarecirculatedfordiscussionandcommentpurposes.Theyhavenotbeenpeer-reviewedorbeensubjecttothereviewbytheNBERBoardofDirectorsthataccompaniesofficialNBERpublications.
?2024byAllanHsiao,JacobMoscona,andKarthikSastry.Allrightsreserved.Shortsectionsoftext,nottoexceedtwoparagraphs,maybequotedwithoutexplicitpermissionprovidedthatfullcredit,including?notice,isgiventothesource.
FoodPolicyinaWarmingWorld
AllanHsiao,JacobMoscona,andKarthikSastryNBERWorkingPaperNo.32539
June2024
JELNo.Q18,Q54,Q56
ABSTRACT
Dogovernmentssystematicallyinterveneinagriculturalmarketsinresponsetoclimateshocks?Ifso,whataretheaggregateanddistributionalconsequences?Weconstructaglobaldatasetofagriculturalpoliciesandextremeheatexposurebycountryandcropsince1980.Wefindthatextremeheatshockstodomesticproductionl
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