The Finial Taskveronica分析和总结分析和总结.docxVIP

TheFinialTask:SIRModel

Veronica

1、 Effectivenessofimmunization

InitialInfectiousPopulation

SusceptiblePopulationS

B

Depletion

InfectionRate

+ +

+ -+

R

Contagion

InfectiousPopulationI

B

Recovery

Recovery

Rate -

+

RecoveredPopulationR

ContactRatec

PopulationNTotal Infectivity

PopulationN

AverageDurationofIllnessd

Assumingthevaccineis100%effective

①Thecontactnumberforpoliois7.Inordertomakesurethattheepidemicwillnotoccur,theinfectionrateshouldbelessthantherecoveryrate,thatis,cid(1-ve)1,

7·(1-v)1,v.Sothefractionofthepopulationthatshouldbevaccinatedwouldbemorethan6/7.

②Thecontactnumberformeaslesandpertussisis18.Asaresult,thefractionofthepopulationthatmustbevaccinatedwouldbemorethan17/18.

Assumingthevaccineis90%effective

①Thecontactnumberforpoliois7.Ifwedonotwanttheepidemictooccur,theinfectionrateshouldbelessthantherecoveryrate,which meansthatcid(1-ve)1,7·(1-0.9v)1,v60/63.Sothefractionofthepopulationthatmustbevaccinatedshouldbemorethan60/63.

②Thecontactnumberformeaslesandpertussisis18.Sothefractionofthepopulationthatmustbevaccinatedwillbemorethan85/81,thatistosay,althoughwecanhaveallthepeoplevaccinated,theepidemicofthesediseasescannotstopspreading.That’wshymeaslesandpertussispersistwhilepoliohasbeeneffectivelyeliminated.

Assumingthathalfofthepopulationhasbeenimmunized,theinitialrecoveredpopulationwillchangefromzeroto5000,andthecurvewillbemuchflatter,whichmeansitwilltakemoretimetooccur,andwilllastforalongtime.

Accordingtotheformula:cid(1-ve)1, thepopulationshouldbeimmunizedtopreventanepidemic.

1,v2/3,so2/3of

elpoeP

10,000

7,500

5,000

2,500

0

SusceptiblePopulationS

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18

Time(Day)

20 22 24 26 28 30

SusceptiblePopulationS:current1SusceptiblePopulationS:curren