Incrementum-新黄金剧本：淘金热之后-The New Gold Playbook 2024.8.docx

TheNewGoldPlaybook

“BullMarketsAreMoreFunThanBearMarkets!“

BobFarrell

1

Breakout:GoldAndGoldInvestorsEnterTerraIncognita!

GoldCup-and-HandleFormation,inUSD,01/2000–08/2024

incrementum3,000

incrementum

2,500

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

0

2000200220042006200820102012201420162018202020222024

Gold

Source:ReutersEikon,IncrementumAG

incrementum2

WesternFinancialInvestorsAreSkippingtheGoldRush-ForNow

3,000AccumulatedGoldETFHoldingsbyRegion(lhs),inTonnes,andGold(rhs),inUSD,01/2004–07/2024

3,000

4,500

4,000

3,500

3,000

2,500

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

0

2,5002,0001,5001,0005000

2,500

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

0

incrementum

20042006200820102012201420162018202020222024

mmNorthAmericammEuropemmAsiammOtherGold

Source:WorldGoldCouncil,IncrementumAG

incrementum3

GoldInRallyMode–AndThatWithRisingRealInterestRates.

InTheOldPlaybook,ThisWouldHaveBeenUnthinkable!Gold(lhs,log),andUS10YTIPS(rhs,inverted),01/2006