2023年全国新课标I卷英语阅读D篇解析题源及难度分析讲义-2024届高三英语二轮专题.pdf

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OnMarch7,1907,theEnglishstatisticianFrancisGaltonpublishedapaperwhich

illustratedwhathascometobeknownasthe“wisdomofcrowds”effect.The

experimentofestimationheconductedshowedthatinsomecases,theaverageofa

largenumberofindependentestimatescouldbequiteaccurate.

Thiseffectcapitalizesonthefactthatwhenpeoplemakeerrors,thoseerrorsaren’t

alwaysthesame.Somepeoplewilltendtooverestimate,andcometounderestimate.

Whenenoughoftheseerrorsareaveragedtogether,theycanceleachotherout,

resultinginamoreaccurateestimate.Ifpeoplearesimilarandtendtomakethesame

errors,thentheirerrorswon’tcanceleachotherout.Inmoretechnicalterms,the

wisdomofcrowdsrequiresthatpeople’sestimatesbeindependent.Ifforwhatever

reasons,people’serrorsbecomecorrelatedordependent,theaccuracyoftheestimate

willgodown.

ButanewstudyledbyJoaquinNavajasofferedaninterestingtwist(转折)onthis

classicphenomenon.Thekeyfindingofthestudywasthatwhencrowdswerefurther

dividedintosmallergroupsthatwereallowedtohaveadiscussion,theaveragesfrom

thesegroupsweremoreaccuratethanthosefromanequalnumberofindependent

individuals.Forinstance,theaverageobtainedfromtheestimatesoffourdiscussion

groupsoffivewassignificantlymoreaccuratethantheaverageobtainedfrom20

independentindividuals.

Inafollow-upstudywith100universitystudents,theresearcherstriedtogetabetter

senseofwhatthegroupmembersactuallydidintheirdiscussion.Didtheytendtogo

withthosemostconfidentabouttheirestimates?Didtheyfollowthoseleastwillingto

changetheirminds?Thishappenedsomeofthetime,butitwasn’tthedominant

response.Mostfrequently,thegroupsreportedthatthey“sharedargumentsand

reasonedtogether.”Somehow

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