《统计学》统计学的成功案例和警示故事（非AI生成）.ppt

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2024-09-28 发布于湖北
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《统计学》统计学的成功案例和警示故事（非AI生成）.ppt

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CASESTUDY6DoesAspirinReduceHeartAttackRates?BackgroundTime:1983~1988Organizer:SteeringCommitteeofthePhysicians’HealthStudyResearchGroupObjective:Todetermineiftakingaspirinreducestheriskofaheartattack.Subject:22,071malephysiciansbetweentheagesof40and80Method:Afive-yearrandomizedexperimentMethod2x2factorialdesignactiveaspirinandactivebeta-carotene(5,517)activeaspirinandbeta-caroteneplacebo(5,520)aspirinplaceboandactivebeta-carotene(5,519)aspirinplaceboandbeta-caroteneplacebo(5,515)Aspirinreducedtheriskoffirstmyocardialinfarctionby44%(Plessthan0.00001).Thereweretoofewstrokesordeathsuponwhichtobasesoundclinicaljudgmentregardingaspirinandstrokeormortality.Result-NewEnglandJournalofMedicine,1989,321(3):18-185TreatmentHeartAttacksDoctorsinGroupAttacksPer1000DoctorsAspirin10411,0379.42Placebo18911,03417.13TheEffectofAspirinonHeartAttacks*Morethan170otherfindingshaveemergedfromthetrialsofar.MoralofthestoryUnlikewithobservationalstudies,cause-andeffectconclusionscangenerallybemadeonthebasisofrandomizedexperiments.Definition:Arandomizedexperimentisastudyinwhichtreatmentsarerandomlyassignedtoparticipants.Astatisticallysignificantrelationshipofdifferenceisonethatlargeenoughtobeunlikelytohaveoccurredinthesampleiftherewasnorelationshipordifferenceinthepopulation.CASESTUDY7DoestheinternetIncreaseLonelinessandDepression?“greateruseoftheinternetwasassociatedwithdeclinesinparticipants’communicationwithfamilymembersinthehousehold,declinesinsizeoftheirsocialcircle,andincreasesintheirdepressionandloneliness.”-Internetparadox:Asocialtechnologythatreducessocialinvolvementandpsychologicalwell-being?AmericanPsychologist,1998,53(9):1017-1031DavidS.MooreSad,LonelyWorldDiscoveredinCyberspace-AmyHarmon,August